Weekend Preview

The Twins play the Rangers this weekend in Arlington. Here are Kubel's stats entering the series:

.267/.291/.413

Kubel appears to be suffering from the same thing affecting the rest of the Twins offense: they are having trouble drawing walks. Kubel has just 3 walks to 17 strikeouts. Some other Twins:

Gomez: 2 BB, 24 K

Young: 3 BB, 14 K

Morneau: 9 BB, 14 K

Harris: 5 BB, 17 K

Monroe: 3 BB, 13 K

Most of these guys are going to put up a similar ratio throughout the year. Kubel is the one Twins who has the best chance at drastically increasing his walks, decreasing his strikeouts, and therefore increasing his OBP.

Part of this may be the organizations philosophy of being aggressive--if you've read any of Gardy's comments regarding Delmon Young and how he's "paid to drive in runs so he needs to take his hacks," then you know that the ability to draw a walk is not valued in the Twins system, unless it's a natural ability like Mauer. Kubel has an above-average eye, and I believe it will show itself as the season progresses.

As for the Twins as a whole--they are currently last in all of baseball in walks. Coincidentally, they are one of the worst offenses in all of baseball as well. I wonder if management is smart enough to connect the two.

Here's how Kubel fairs against the pitchers on Friday and Sunday (Saturday is TBD):

Millwood

3-for-4, 2 doubles

Padilla

0-for-4, with a walk

Best of luck, Kubes.

 

Hope Springs

Perhaps Gardy has seen the light:

"DH Frank Thomas was once pursued by the Twins, but manager Ron Gardenhire said Minnesota is not interested now that the former Blue Jays slugger is available again. 'I'm happy with Jason Kubel," Gardenhire said. 'I don't know how I'd get (Thomas) at-bats because I plan on letting Jason Kubel have all of these at-bats."

No mention of Monroe. Excellent.

Of course, I'll believe it when I see it.

Twins in Oakland

The Twins are off today and begin a series out in Oakland tomorrow. Yesterday Kubel, hitting 3rd in the lineup, went 2-for-4 with a walk. His two-out single in the 10th sent Harris to 3rd and set up the game-winning single by Morneau.

In the Oakland series, the Twins will face Joe Blanton on Tuesday, Chad Gaudin on Wednesday, and Gerg Smith on Thursday. Kubel has never faced Smith, but here's how he has hit against Blanton and Gaudin:

Blanton: 0-3

Gaudin: 3-5, HR

I'm hoping for a big series from Kubel to bring up that average and OBP.

Heading Into the Weekend

...and here's where Kubel stands:

.259/.281/.463

14/54, 3 HR, 2 doubles, 12 RBI, K:BB of 13:2

The K:BB is a little disturbing. After the ASB in 2007, he had a K:BB of 33:23, which helped lead to this OBP of .379.

Hopefully that K:BB will get better over the next month or two, as recent history suggests it should. In fact, I am confident that it will.

Kubel should get the start against Cliff Lee tonight, as Monroe's career stat line against Lee is, well, this:

.148/.226/.333 in 27 AB, 1 HR

Kubel has never faced Lee.

Here's hoping for a good weekend for Kubel and the Twins.

Silver Lining

If there was a silver lining to the horrible Twins game tonight (compliments of the bullpen), it was the performance of the offense. And, on this site, the performance of Jason Kubel.

2-for-4, 1 run, 2 RBI, and a BB

Watching tonights game, although painful at the end, you could tell that Kubel is feeling very comfortable at the plate.

Off of Kubel for a second, a question for Gardy: What's the point of carrying 12 pitchers if you're not going to use them to win games? Two of your guys struggled (mightily), yet Gardy left them both out longer than he should have. Sometimes, he just blows the mind.

Kubel Update

Kubel just hit his 3rd HR of the year tonight. He is now tied for the team lead in HR with Morneau.

He was down no balls, two strikes, then worked the count full and hooked one around the right field foul pole.

Kubel has started in all the games since Cuddyer went on the DL. Assuming that Span is sent back down once Cuddyer returns, let's hope that the power and patience shown by Kubel will be enough for him to take over as full-time DH.

Gardy Has Beers with Reason, Logic

From the Star Trib:

"He had a big night," Gardenhire said of Kubel, who finished with six RBI. "I've always said, I really believe this guy can hit. And you know what? He's going to get plenty of opportunities this year. He had 450 [plate appearances] last year, and I think he's going to get more than that this year."

It seems Gardy is becoming aware that Kubel can be a key to the Twins offense now and in the future. Of course, there are still some suspicious moves, like starting Monroe at DH instead of Kubel on opening day against a RHP, that keep me from taking Gardy on his word.

On the downside, Gardenhire called Monroe "a veteran guy," which obviously means his standing is unjustly lifted in Gardy's mind. I don't think I'll ever understand his affection for veterans, especially lousy-hitting ones.

Some other observations from last night's game:

Yays

• Mauer had more two hits, and is hitting .323 
• Harris went 3-for-4 with a double
• Lamb had two hits
• Young drew a walk, which set up the Kubel GS
• Brian Bass looked good in long relief
• Gomez flashed some D in CF by robbing O. Cabrera of an XBH

Nays

• Baker gave up three HRs
• Everett failed to get a hit (although that's not what he's here for)
• Twins committed three errors, although they weren't horrible errors

Finally, an update on the Kubel vs. Monroe battle.

Kubel (26 ABs)

.269/.286/.538, 2 HR, 8 RBI

Monroe (15 ABs)

.133/.278/.267, 0 HR, 2 RBI

Yes, they are small sample sizes, but as the season progresses these stat lines will begin to take shape and show who deserves to start every game, and who should sit on the bench.

White Sox Get Kubeled

The top of the 6th just ended for the Twins tonight at U.S. Cellular. Here's Kubel's line for the night:

2 for 3, GS, 6 RBI, SF

And the game isn't over. This why Kubel needs to be in the lineup every day. He is a smart hitter. He doesn't just hack at everything like Monroe. He waits for his pitch, and he drives it.

I was glad that Gardy started him tonight in RF against a left-hander. One wonders if Kubel's performance tonight gives Gardy more confidence is giving Kubel his 550 ABs this year, even after Cuddyer comes back. We can only hope that Monroe will be delegated to the bench and Kubel will be made the full-time DH and occasional OF spot-starter.

On a more obvious note, one only needs to watch a Kubel AB and a Monroe AB to know who should be the permanent DH. Monroe flails, Kubel nails.

The Cuddyer Effect

Now that Cuddyer is on the 15-Day DL, we should see more ABs for Kubel.

However, Smith and Gardy chose to call up Span over the likes of Ruiz, Knott, or Buscher, who would all be a power threat off the bench (Buscher not as much, but far more than the slap-hitting Span).

There are a few reasons they may have chosen Span.

First, if Span can have a few decent weeks in the majors, maybe they can trade him to a team as a 4th outfielder with some range, some speed, and decent defense. They probably wouldn't get much back, but maybe he could be a piece in a larger deadline deal.

Second, perhaps they're wondering if Gomez will be up with the Twins the entire season and are interested in how Span can perform against big league pitching. Gomez has had a few great games, but he has also looked absolutely awful at the plate at times. For every game 3-for-4 game with 2 steals and 2 runs, there will be two or three games where he goes 0-for-4 with 3 Ks. There could be some rough patches ahead for him, and maybe they think Span could replace him while Gomez learns more in the minors.

Finally, it could've just been a nice gesture to Span to give him a taste of the major leagues since he only posted a .678 OPS as a 23-year-old at AAA last year, and doesn't look to be anything more than a 4th outfielder in the bigs. if even that.

For comparison, as a 22-year-old at AAA, Jason Kubel posted a .958 OPS over 350 ABs. He was promoted to AAA that year after crushing AA pitching to a tune of a 1.120 OPS over 138 ABs.

Instead of calling up someone who could actually be a threat off the bench in the late innings, the Twins called up a no-pop 4th outfielder. This means the Twins now have the following outfielders: Gomez, Young, Monroe, Kubel, Span.

So, in reality, Span is the 5th outfielder on the team.

A more sensible thing to do would have been to call up a Ruiz or Knott to add some pop to the bench, and then alternate between Kubel/Monroe in RF while Young and Gomez manned LF and CF. If Gomez needed a day off, then Punto could play in center. Gardy would like that. If Young needed a day off (which seems unlikely since he played 162 game last year), Kubel and Monroe could man LF and RF.

All in all, however, Cuddyer's injury, while unfortunate, will provide Kubel with ABs to prove to Gardy that he belongs in the lineup every day.

 

Nothing to Lose

The Twins have nothing to lose this year, mainly because they're not going to win anything except perhaps third place in the AL Central. This fact leads into one of the primary reasons for this site--to give Kubel a full year (550 ABs) and see if he puts up numbers that show he should be a regular player on the Twins for the next few years.

Before we get into the lineup Gardy put out there tonight, let's go over some basic facts.

• Jason Kubel is a better hitter than Craig Monroe

• Mike Lamb is a better hitter than Nick Punto

• Matt Tolbert is a better hitter than Nick Punto

One thing to define--by "hitter" I mean someone who works a count and is able to wait for a pitch they can drive and, if they don't see a pitch they want, take a walk. Because of this, they make starting pitchers throw more pitches per AB, so we don't see Jon Garland or Joe Saunders getting through 8 innings with only 85 pitches. You will see this a lot with Detroit, Cleveland, Boston, and the Yankees.

Of the players listed above, here is the list, in descending order, of how good these guys are: Kubel, Lamb, Monroe, Tolbert, Punto.

Now, with that in mind, here was Gardy's lineup against lefty Joe Saunders tonight.

1. Gomez
2. Harris
3. Cuddyer
4. Morneau
5. Young
6. Monroe
7. Redmond
8. Punto
9. Everett (who was replaced by Matt Tolbert for unknown reasons before the game)

This illustrates one of the most frustrating problems with Ron Gardenhire. He loves the righty/lefty match-ups. He loves them so much he's blinded to the quality of a hitter--it only matters if they bat from the "right" side of the plate (depending on the other teams starting pitcher).

Punto should not be a starter in any lineup. He was the worst hitter in the major leagues last year and he lost his starting job this spring by hitting an abysmal .125/.192/.167 even though Gardy was shoveling spring ABs to him to try and have a reason to give him the 2B job.

Monroe will OBP under .300 this year. He cannot lay off any pitches. He's basically a poor man's Jacque Jones.

Tolbert has some promise, and he's young. He still has some room to learn and show what he can do. I'd start him in a lineup before Punto any day of the week.

Kubel is a tremendous hitter. He should've been in the lineup instead of Monroe.

Lamb is a disciplined major league hitter. He doesn't need rest the third game of the year. He should definitely have started over Punto at 3B.

Now, in terms of plate discipline, there is an exception in the Twins lineup. Delmon Young is a 22-year-old stud who has incredible upside. He strikes out too much and doesn't walk enough, but he's 22. There is plenty of time for him to grow as a hitter. Gardy recognizes this and will probably play him in all 162 games this year. That is wise.

What isn't wise is playing a 31-year-old who is a career .256/.302/.446 hitter over a 26-year-old who tore up the minors before he tore up his knee.

Delmon Young = Potential
Jason Kubel = Potential
Craig Monroe = No Potential

This is what is infuriating with Gardy--he can recognize the potential in Young, but is somehow completely oblivious to the potential in Kubel. I'm almost beginning to wonder if Gardy has something personal against Kubel.

One final note: Anyone who gives equal playing time to Kubel and Punto should not be a major league manager.

ABs for Kubel: 5
ABs for Punto: 3

I think we'll keep track of this, just in case.

Jason "On the Bench" Kubel

At least that's what Gardy calls him. Why? Because Craig Monroe started at DH last night against a RHP. And promptly went 0-for-3. Kubel pinch-hit for him in the 8th and dumped a hit behind third base.

Somehow, Gardy was able to convince himself that Monroe, who hit under .200 against RHP last year, deserved the start. Kubel hit .280/.336/.474 last year against RHP. On my way into work today, The Dazzleman Dan Gladden was on the radio and he was asked why Gardy would do such a thing, and he responded that Weaver "has a nasty change-up against lefties."

Even if Weaver had a nasty change against lefties, he's not going to throw 10 change-ups to Kubel every at-bat. And what does Kubel have? That's right, plate discipline. Something that Monroe has lacked his entire career and will continue to lack because he's on the wrong side of 30.

Will this be a one night stand? Was Gardy merely giving the nod to the "veteran" on opening day?

If you know Gardy, I think you know the answer.

If you don't know the answer, here's a hint from Gardy's post-game interview: 

"I just wanted to see that guy [Monroe] out there. He's been having a good spring, drives the ball and all those things. Put him out there, and [Tuesday] might be a different story."

Spring Comparisons:

Monroe: .265/.288/.449, 2 HR, 8:2 K:BB

Kubel: .231/.322/.404, 2 HR, 5:6 K:BB

What we can learn (actually re-learn) from this: Kubel can walk to get on base, Monroe can't. Despite hitting 34 points lower, Kubel had a 34 point advantage in OBP. This is all important if you can remember, unlike Gardy, that the only job of a position player in baseball is to not make an out. In other words, to get on base.

What Gardy means by "all those things": is a veteran, can OBP under .300, strikes out a lot?

Tonight's opposing pitcher: Jon Garland

Monroe vs. Garland: 7-for-33 (.212 avg), 3 HR

Kubel vs. Garland: 7-for-17 (.412 avg), 3 HR

Chance Gardenhire will start Monroe "because he's had some success against Garland": 78%

Never mind that Kubel has equalled that success (7 hits, 3 HR) in half the ABs.

Free Jason Kubel!