The Case for Kubel, Part 1

Craig Monroe, Kubel's main competition at DH this year, has had a few good games recently. Most notably, he's hit two homers--something attractive to Gardenhire and a Twins organization that is searching to replace Torii Hunter's power. Fortunately, Kubel followed Monroe's homer on Saturday with one of his own.

I want to make it clear I have nothing against Monroe--he's a nice guy and a decent baseball player. That being said, he's much older than Kubel (in baseball terms), has a more defined MLB track record, and would best serve this team--in a year they won't contend--as a spot-starter in the outfield and pinch-hitter. The main purpose of this blog is to promote Jason Kubel and prevent Gardy from stunting his growth (actually, recovery to what he's capable of) by giving him around only 300 ABs this season.

Jason Kubel needs at least 550 ABs this year--whether in LF or at DH--to show what he can do over a full season. Look at his line in 350 ABs at AAA before he blew out his knee in the 2005 AFL.

.343/.398/.560 with 16 homers, 28 doubles, and, most importantly, a K:BB of 40:34. Hell, he even stole 16 bases while only being caught 3 times (although to count on him for SB now would be unwise).

If there was a player in the Twins organization who did that last year at AAA, he'd be ranked as the top prospect in the Twins minor league system.

Unfortunately, he blew out his knee in the AFL and spent all of 2005 rehabbing it. Then, when he came back in 2006, he overcompensated with his other knee and it began to bother him. The 2007 season started with what many now consider (foolishly) to be Jason Kubel's talent level--struggling at the plate and often looking uncomfortable, with occasional pop and a sluggish glove in LF. However, at the end of the 2007 season, his numbers began to approach those of his 2004 season at AAA--his average rose, he walked more and struck out less and hit for more power. These are all good things for a hitter to show. Here are the numbers he put up before and after the All-star break in 2007:

Pre-ASB (240 ABs): .250/.302/.404 with 7 homers, 16 doubles, and a K:BB of 46:18

Post-ASB (178 ABs): .303/.379/.511 with 6 homers, 15 doubles, and a K:BB of 33:23

Nevermind that his AVG, OBP, and SLG all improved, but he managed to put up the same power numbers in 62 fewer ABs. The best sign is the return of his eye at the plate. That jump in OBP makes anyone with any baseball knowledge salivate. I guess it wouldn't if you were Gardy, or Dusty Baker.

I'm not saying Kubel is going to go out and put up a .300-25-100 season, but in a season where the Twins will not compete for anything but 3rd in the AL Central, what do they have to lose by giving a kid who was once one of their most promising prospects 550 ABs? Why give Monroe, a "veteran" who has struggled in recent years and never been a great player, more or even equal ABs than someone who could prove to be one of the Twins better offensive weapons over the next five, eight, even ten years?